Global Trade Wars: Trends and Future Directions

1. Deepening US-China Rivalry

E.Kilinc Ankara. 11-04-2025

- The US is imposing chip export restrictions, pressuring Chinese companies like TikTok, and pursuing policies to shift supply chains away from China.
- In response, China is focusing on self-sufficiency and promoting its 'Made in China' strategy.
- This rivalry extends beyond tariffs, encompassing technology, data security, and financial systems.

2. European Union Moves Toward Protectionism

- The EU is introducing new trade barriers, such as the 'Carbon Border Tax', to tighten scrutiny of imports based on environmental standards.
- It is also taking steps to protect its industry from subsidized Chinese goods.

3. Restructuring of Supply Chains

- Following COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine war, countries are aiming for more resilient and regionalized supply chains.
- Concepts like 'friendshoring' and 'nearshoring' are gaining ground, favoring trade with politically aligned nations.

4. New Alliances Among Emerging Economies

- BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India,

 China, South Africa) are seeking alternatives to the Western-dominated trade system.
- This has even led to questions about the US dollar’s dominance in global trade.

Overall Outlook: Where Are We Headed?

- Global trade is increasingly moving toward polarization.
- Trade wars are evolving beyond tariffs to include technology, data, environmental, and energy policies.
- In the long term, the rules of trade may change, with clearer divides between global blocs.